GALLUP HAS BAD NEWS FOR DEMS – AT 6:26 P.M. ET:  If Republicans can keep this trend going, they may actually win.  From RealClearPolitics:

Gallup's generic polling shows the number of voters saying that they would vote for Republicans rising three points from last week, while the number saying they will vote for Democrats dropped four points. The 49%-43% lead for the Republicans is the largest that the pollster has ever recorded for the party. Moreover, Democratic enthusiasm for voting this fall fell a point, while enthusiasm among Republicans stayed about fifteen points higher. This indicates an even wider lead for Republicans once Gallup imposes a likely voter screen this fall.

There are any number of reasons for this: the public's perception of Obama's response to the oil spill, the shaky stock market performance last week, continued concern about the economy and spending. The bottom line is that, despite what is perceived as an underperformance for the Republicans in PA-12 a couple of weeks ago, there are still plenty of Democrats in trouble for this November.

COMMENT:  We have to keep them in trouble.  The election is still five months away.  Right now the GOP is depending on poor performance by the Democrats to lift them to victory, and President Obama seems to be cooperating on that. 

But the GOP, still nominally the minority party, must fight as if it's 15 points behind.

June 1, 2010